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I’m not exactly what you’d call a “film buff”. Don’t get me wrong, I like movies – hell, I love movies. At one point I envisioned myself as a director or a screenwriter one of those made up jobs that people use to get in the credits without really doing anything. And, for a while, I made an effort to see all the critically acclaimed and award nominated movies. I’d have in-depth discussions with friends and family on cinematography and writing and acting as if we had any idea what the hell we were talking about.

Over the years, however, going to the movies became, well… a chore more than anything. Ticket prices kept going up, getting to the theater became more and more of a pain in the ass and on-demand and streaming video more or less put me in a “I’ll catch it on Netflix” mentality (I rarely caught it on Netflix, by the way). Nowadays, it takes a superhero to get me out of the house and into a theater. Take that any way you’d like.

My point is, the 2015 Oscar nominations came out this morning and I didn’t see any of the movies nominated for any of the major awards (with the exception of “Interstellar” because hell yeah I was gonna see that in a theater)(also, my sister got me an Alamo Drafthouse gift card for Christmas so I was running out of excuses). But, I’m gonna try to guess the winners anyway. Because, let’s be honest – how many of these winners are chosen on the basis of quality? Ha ha! Am I right, people? High five!

So, with that, let’s go….

(I’d like to reiterate that I have not seen any of these so before you start to send me messages telling me that I clearly have no idea what I’m talking about please remember that I know, you dumbass, I told you that already).

selma-cast

Best Picture

“American Sniper”
“Birdman”
“Boyhood”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Selma”
“The Theory of Everything”
“Whiplash”

Out of all of these, I can already see three that stand a chance of even remotely winning. There’s “American Sniper”, a movie about an, um, American sniper? Maybe? Just kidding, it is – based on the memoirs of Chris Kyle, a soldier who was great at both shooting bad guys with a rifle from far away and making stuff up in his book (I look forward to your rational comment posts). It’s also directed by Clint Eastwood and he more or less makes pretty good movies. Then we have “Boyhood”, a coming-of-age drama that was filmed over the course of 12 years. I’d like to think that anything would be pretty good when you work on it for that long, but we all saw how Duke Nukem Forever turned out so never mind.

“Selma” is about Martin Luther King, Jr. so that’ll probably win.

Benedict_Cumberbatch_filming_Sherlock

Best Actor

Steve Carell – “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper – “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch – “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton – “Birdman”
Eddie Redmayne – “The Theory of Everything”

I think almost all of these guys have a good chance of winning, except for maybe Steve Carell because hahahahaha really? Come on. Michael Keaton was the only one here who didn’t play a dude from real life. Weird. Bradley Cooper’s been nominated three years in a row now so I think he’s supposed to win one automatically, isn’t he? I forget how this works. Benedict Cumberbatch played a gay computer genius who fought Nazis with computers (I don’t think the actual movie is as awesome as I make it sound) so on that alone he deserves, like, all the awards. Eddie Redmayne plays a decidedly not gay genius who talks with a computer (he doesn’t fight Nazis though… I think), so that’s kind of close. This one’s a toughie.

Hell with it, I’ll go with Cumberbatch. Redmayne may have the playing-a-guy-with-a-disease advantage but Cumberbatch has that super serious-yet-super popular thing going for him.

Julianne_Moore_(Berlin_Film_Festival_2010)_3

Best Actress

Marion Cotillard – “Two Days One Night”
Felicity Jones – “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore – “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike – “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon – “Wild”

Aw, crap. What are half these movies? I mean, I’ve seen all these talented lady actors (yeah… actors. Do you also say “athletettes?) in other films (except for Felicity Jones, but I actually know what her movie’s about), so I know what they’re capable of. But, geez. Were these the only movies with female characters this year?

This thing I just looked at says that Julianne Moore plays a lady with Alzheimer’s Disease so she’ll probably win.

The_Closer_S2_JK_Simmons_0011

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall – “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke – “Boyhood”
Edward Norton – “Birdman”
Mark Ruffalo – “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons – “Whiplash”

Every year, there’s that one category with a popular “lock” to win. You know, it’s usually someone who’s kind of under the radar. Maybe has a cult following. Or sometimes it’s a famous movie star who hasn’t had much success in a while and then “makes a comeback”. Sometimes they win the Golden Globe but, even if they don’t, the common consensus is that they’ll win. Then, the winner is announced and they totally don’t win. You know the thing I’m talking about?

Well, actually, sometimes – not often, but sometimes – they do win. So, I think J.K. Simmons is going to win. I mean, it’s not like they’re going to give it to Ethan Hawke or anything.

Crap, watch Ethan Hawke actually win now. I can’t have nice things.

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Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette – “Boyhood”
Laura Dern – “Wild”
Emma Stone – “Birdman”
Keira Knightly – “The Imitation Game”
Meryl Streep – “Into the Woods”

OK, this one is a little easier to logic out (“logic” can be a verb, shut up). I still don’t know what Wild is about, but I’m going to pretend it’s an artsy, over-clever avant garde remake of “Jurassic Park”. Oooh! The dinosaurs are a metaphor for man’s hubris! Awesome! Man, why isn’t this nominated for Best Picture? Well, it just won the award for Best Picture in the Awards For Movies I Just Made Up (the AFoMIJuMUs?)

Sorry. Off track. So, smart money is saying Patricia Arquette, so she’ll probably win. But, I like Emma Stone and Meryl Streep already has, like thirty Oscars and there’s Keira Knightly, too, I guess but do you really see her winning this? I’m assuming you said “no”. So, I’m picking Emma Stone because if she wins, I look like a genius and if she doesn’t win, well, it’s not like I can look any stupider than the rest of this article has already made me look.

Richard Linklater

Best Director

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – “Birdman”
Richard Linklater – “Boyhood”
Bennett Miller – “Foxcatcher”
Wes Anderson – “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Morten Tyldum – “The Imitation Game”

Well, we’ve come to the last category I plan on subjecting you to. Richard Linklater is probably going to win this. Unless Harvey Weinstein bullied all the voters into voting for Morten Tyldum because I read on the Internet that that’s a thing he does or something.

Well, they’re going to announce the winners to these things on February 22nd so you’ll find out exactly how full of crap I really am then. Have fun!